Willy Woo forecasts bit currency value to go situation: Prices and main area deviate from badly
Write civil: Willy Woo, add close currency analyst to compile: Perry Wang
In me last time in forecasting, in pattern trading to be in the transverse and bullish structure that be accumulated afresh and anabiosises on bit money catenary, without Xiong Fu’s evidence. Value of currency of after this bit continues horizontal dish arrange, go sign is further be expected to fall. And in same period of time, of structure of the parameter on catenary point to completely different however.
Be accumulated afresh and anabiosis still did not change, and be in really increase, created classical price to walk along situation and main area to deviate from thereby. This period Newsletter (2021 the 22nd period) although bit money is basic face and on first phase did not produce a lot of change, but the market structure that I can spend time in more detail to explain current bit money.
On July 2, 2021 summary of bit currency prices (current price) of thirty-three thousand three hundred dollar:
Macroscopical and periodic: Bovine city in good condition nondestructive, user growth continues to climb litre. According to me advanced two period the view in Newsletter, macroscopical index continues bullish. Short-term with metaphase (do not exceed future two month) : The price and main area appear classical deviate from. What the market did not notice is, long-term investor is being sucked silently chip. My individual anticipates this kind supplies concussion to will drive the market up. My individual thinks, from 2020 network of the fourth quarter experienced the market to did not notice, since the similar main area that supplies concussion place to cause deviates from, now is best entrance opportunity.
Important clew: All forecasting that be probability sex, the historical dependability that short time frame forecasts is about 80% . As a result of from long-term in light of, main area takes dominant place, because this is more long-term forecast more reliable, the prices of shorter time limits goes situation is easy get the influence of the random sex of uncertain incident and market. Short-term adventurer should use proper risk government.
Understanding market is current configuration
In city of bit money ox, the price always is meeting fall after a rise, buy domestic determination newly in order to check, we say for ” not will sturdy investor washs a bureau ” :
- Currency value begins low buy the home newly bear control usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price senior investor low is sucked chip
Senior investor is average financial resources is solid, their purchasing power makes currency value relaxed rebound. This brought up next graphs such price V form goes situation.
In undersell dimensions huge case falls, it is impossible to obtain quick V look to restore. Contrary, undersell needs time to be accumulated afresh to the token on the market. This brought about an endless horizontal stroke dish prices, accumulate what we say for chip bottom.
We connect regular meeting to see the usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price of this kind of dimensions when ursine city end, right now the greatest pain forces not sturdy investor to go out bureau, and astute capital buys a hand to enter, suck in price bottom chip.
The circumstance is at present arrogant to bit money very distinctive scenery is for city, the normal trends that mentions because of preamble place is destroyed. The bud of undersell bit money is new now participator is the congenial thumb orgnaization with sufficient financing, and absorb these token buying the home is the extended hold with less capital person.
When the bovine city that goes up to 45 thousand dollar all the way in bit money, have unprecedented quantitative bud orgnaization of new gigantic whale enters, their buy go for bullish bit currency value sign is further increased power, but arrive when Feburary, these ” spec gigantic whale ” had begun to gain profit, later to market usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price a large number of token.
Gigantic whale is in the fourth quarter bought bit currency all the time 2020, be in 2021 sell first quarter piece. Analyse the turnaround time of token, we can see the main business activity in the market comes from the token with hold shorter time, because this the most possible reason is new speculation,gigantic whale is in ceaselessly buying and selling
Arrived when April, afore-mentioned super- sell cast dish of ox city with had been pressed normal to buy dish, force bourse to sell a token. This kind of wholesale usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price is I am in forecast this year the 19th period Newsletter (on May 18) in the reason that forecasts a likelihood to need ability of a few months to anabiosis. Occurrence bottom of more possible meeting accumulates prices, is not V form anabiosises quickly.
Although above trade shed a graph to show undersell spring tide already subsidise, but the oneself quality of the person that we need to observe the hold of inspiratory token seriously really.
Below us ” Rick Astley ” chart (note: In the analyst’s term, england writes a popular star Rick Astley before ” masterpiece: Never Gonna Give Up ” the prototype that is long-term negotiant) , the token between the person that showed extended hold and congenial participator flows.
Apparent, extended hold person sucking with driving speed prepare speculation token. Now is one awaits game, get be reflectinged thoroughly in price action till this, data affirms ground demonstrate: Chip bottom is accumulated forming.
Supply landform of concussion quiet silence to become, will affect prices
Although information of the pattern on catenary is pointed to all the time transverse and bullish anabiosis prices, but the price goes situation did not mirror this.
Look in me, token increases and this is caused, ground of adventurer too impatient to wait wants to sell, and buy the home for a long time to all the time patience is sucked slowly chip. According to technical analysis, the price goes situation severe be expected to fall is in adventurer eye, chart analyst points out bit currency value will steep fall further to 20 thousand dollar, claim we are in Xiong Fu in. And main area does not support this one view. The parameter on catenary is very bullish. Supply concussion to be being formed sadly, and the market did not notice however. In the chart below, I mixed afresh ” Rick Astley ” data, what show this is a strong opponent (senior investor) with weak hand (bud new investor) the rate of the bit money of place hold.
Fluidity supplies rate is to point to seldom sell a token (strong opponent) the token amount of place hold is divided with speculation participator (weak hand) the token amount of place hold
The token that gigantic whale undersell gives adventurer now by extended hold person absorb. Our current and located supply pounds a level, when be 50 thousand dollar with bit currency value, comparative.
We see these main areas deviate from rarely, namely token go up from the market sadly evacuate, and price action did not mirror this. The market discovers token is supplied suddenly be immersed in dried up, the likelihood is a time problem only. A very good entrance the opportunity is before.
It is another kind of panicky to offerring viewpoint below, this is to be based on bourse practicable to send machine stock.
Supplying concussion rate is supply of acting total money except can use token measure with bourse. Because the token supply of bourse is opposite at total supply occupy than decreasing, this meeting aggravate supplies concussion (green line adds)
Those who need an attention is, with bourse inventory (the 2nd piece of chart) photograph comparing, the quality of holder (the first piece of chart) more showed this kind to supply concussion specially clearly. Negotiant can get bourse stock normally, but come loose as more an investor in bovine city metaphase (this is us what see now) enter, but the demonstrative meaning of bourse inventory can be reduced. Medicinal powder door negotiant likes to deposit their token in bourse.
The market when this let me remember the four seasons was spent 2020 supplies concussion without what notice. Show when data long-term investor is sucked quickly when preparing bit money, what experts are arguing is bit money however whether hind a kind of investment in epidemic situation world is right strong. Bit currency value steeps fall subsequently, very fast the close together dependency of its and stock appeared unhook.
Rate of growth of bit money network is achieved new 2021 tall
Glassnode is in the history according to participator binds one by one of purse address and individual participator respect calm respect to be done very marvellously interactively. From inside these data, we can see bit money network is added newly on average everyday 32, 000 healthy users, mean greeted 2021 new tall.
Hypostatic net growth (2 weeks of change are measured all line) . The new user number that joins a network namely is subtractive leave a network (clear empty purse) user number
I wrote down true Xiong Fu with red sign in the begining (at the beginning of 2017) ; New user stops to enter, higher price cannot last. And pattern of the parameter on the catenary that we are experiencing now is not such. New user is using this opportunity to meet low buy, enter speed is achieved 2021 new tall. This becomes action of another indication price to deviate from the give typical examples of the data on catenary.
ETF investor is in average
ETF is to pass what the portion in broker account obtains bit money n to replace model bit money invests a tool. They are very popular in long-term and traditional investor and orgnaization investor.
Drop in this during prices, new the hold quantity of the Canadian Purpose Bitcoin ETF that roll out increased 4100 BTC, with the circumstance conform to that we see on catenary: Long-term investor is being bought.
Let us see gray scale Grayscale now, it is the biggest, the most mature ETF, 3.5% what supervising supply of whole bit money. Gray scale invests the unique part of the tool to depend on, should hold person when selling share, it won’t reduce BTC hold amount, sell share with the price under BTC market however. Actually, we can judge business demand according to price of gray scale excessive.
Price of gray scale excessive is the price difference that points to the share that represents rock-bottom BTC capital fund
Gray scale investor from Feburary the last ten-day of a month begins to sell its manage some capital fund, bring about gray scale ETF to clinch a deal by excessive price fall to convert into money. Drop in this during prices, sell dish already turned to buy dish, present bade case to go again of situation deviate from.
The conformity digging mine of dynamic is undertaking
If do not have pair of Chinese bit money to dig minerals line of business big migratory publish a comment, this letter does not calculate complete. The pressure of major short-term be expected to fall of BTC price the ban that China of ascribe near future digs mine to BTC.
Because China digs mine in bit money,very high proportion is held in the network, this one ban eliminated bit money network effectively to go up the last large center turns area, because this is right,the future of the network is valued for a long time.
Short-term inside, as the hardware that dig mine migratory the other place to world each district, the Ha Xi rate in the network has fallen temporarily. Speed of area piece processing is 3 times slower than normal circumstance.
The network will be in today (in compose when the article) compensation drops this kind what Ha Xi leads, alleviate thereby the provisionality decelerate of the network. Predicting this will be the greatest difficulty on history of bit money network reduce tone to rectify. (catenary hears note: Beijing time on July 3 14 when 35 minutes, bit money network is in area piece height 689472 greet difficulty to adjust, entire network is spent reduce to 14.36T, next amplitude modulation are as high as 27.94% , for history on most reduce substantially. )
The difficulty that dig mine is adjusted after reaching the designated position, will rebound to build a bottom to open the window with the price for bit currency value.
This is the collier’s concession actually. When the collier by from the eliminate in the network, collier firmly him hold of survival coin, because they know, the undersell pressure of close down collier already subsidise and the price has reached the designated position. We can pass the compression of Diffculty Ribbon, see this kind of effect intuitionisticly. This is the reliable signal of price bottom all the time on the history.